Saturday, January 26, 2008

economic stimulus packages or politics??

So I'm sitting in the state capital coffee shop area on the first floor and I read this for AJC columnist Jim Wooton
• Politicians cannot be stopped from rolling the printing presses during economic panic. It’s good politics to cut and distribute checks for a few hundred dollars but it’s hard to see what that approach solves, other than growing the deficit. The subprime debacle and housing will settle out when the marketplace reprices the real estate inflated by speculators and high-risk loans to unworthy borrowers. A check for $300 is “don’t blame us” insurance.
Many if not most of my friends won't read Wooten. I understand why but I've always countered that we have to read him so we can know what to counter pose. You can't contend conservatism blindly. You have to learn to listen and see why conservative arguments are so successful with certain sectors of the population.

This has nothing to do with someone being stupid, fooled, ignorant, or selfish. My opinion it that it is based in the fundamental framing of the issues and language one uses to explain, defend, or decry a position.

Lets break down Wootens thought here...

Politicians can't be stopped from rolling out the printing presses during economic panic
Why is that? Is it because of

option A) voters demand it, politicians want to keep their jobs so they'll do it

option B) economist recommend it, politicians want to big good stewards of the economy, so they'll do it

option C) some mix of the two...

Mr. Wooten seems to lean on option A
It’s good politics to cut and distribute checks for a few hundred dollars but it’s hard to see what that approach solves, other than growing the deficit.
My first thought was there was an economist name John Maynard Keynes who did a lot of important work on the question of keeping an economy running smoothly, more superficially on deficit spending. I'm not an expert in the field but I know there are many economist who come from a school of thought that has learned from Keynes work.

But moving away from that, recently on Newshour they had on Noble Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz who teaches economics at Columbia University. Here is what he had to say when asked about what kind of stimulus package he would create... (Lets keep in mind he isn't counting on any ones votes...
Well, I would begin by focusing on, what gives the biggest bang for the buck? The problem is that, over the last seven years, our deficits have increased enormously.

Now, when you're ranking proposals by the bang for the buck, the number-one is strengthening our unemployment insurance system. When people get thrown out of work, they get money, they spend it.

Number two, giving money, tax rebate to low-income Americans. Again, when they get the money, they'll spend it. And a tax rebate could be done in a very quick way.

Number three, giving money to states and localities that are facing real financial constraints. Tax revenues are going down. Property values are going down. And most states have a balanced budget framework.

So if the revenues go down, they have to cut their expenditures. And this will depress the economy. So dollar for dollar, this will stimulate the economy enormously.


He isn't alone in the economics Field in thinking that stimulating the economy is needed...

And not only that Wooten seems nonchalant about it. As if things are all honkey-dory. Jumping over to the blog for the Brookings and Urban Instutes tax policy blog we see how bad things have come in a post entitled States and Recession: What a Difference Six Months Makes
Six months ago, states were predicting balanced budgets and surpluses. Virtually all had surpluses at the end of fiscal year 2007 and more than half had ending balances equaling at least 10 percent of their general funds. Governors and legislatures were happily talking about property tax relief and expanding medical coverage to the uninsured.

How times have changed. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities about half of all states now expect a budget shortfall in FY '09, with the number growing as more states release their budgets for the coming year. Seventeen states expect deficits totaling at least $31 billion, and California and Maryland anticipate shortfalls in the current year as well. It is looking like states will have a much tougher time weathering the current downturn than they did in the last two recessions.
What concerns me about many of the things Wooten writes is that it falls into a framework that is either untutored in economics or intentionally frames issues in a way that sets us up for divisiveness and selfishness.

The question is what to do about the economy, Wooten think taxes cuts and stimulus packages are about buying "don't blame us" get out of jail free cards for politicians. He creates an easy out for Conservative politicians he supports so that they can live to see another day. One of the problems is conservative thought has helped create the economic woes we are currently in, keeping their political careers alive for another day is the last thing the average American needs right now.

What we need are better technocrats--well tutored stewards of the economy--not better moralizers who use fear to pit one neighbor against another. We all are in this together... we shouldn't let others fool us into thinking otherwise.

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